Older Adults Now Exceed Young Children in the Global Population

People aged 65 and older now account for a larger share of humanity than children aged five and under, marking a major shift in the world’s age structure. A new U.S. Census Bureau report estimates that older adults represented 10.5% of the global population in 2025. Their share is projected to rise to 19.6% by 2060, meaning the worldwide population of older adults will nearly double over that period.

The change reflects two long-term trends: families are having fewer children, while more people are surviving into older age. The Census Bureau’s report, *An Aging World: 2025*, says older adults moved ahead of the youngest children sometime between 2020 and 2025. Data reported by KBS World put the number of people aged 65 and above at about 852 million in 2025.

This comparison is specifically between older adults and children aged 0 to 5. A different measure from the Population Reference Bureau shows how far the shift has already spread: more than 2.8 billion people live in countries or territories where people aged 65 and older outnumber children under 15. That is roughly one-third of the global population, although the balance varies sharply from one place to another.

More than 70% of the world’s population already lives in countries where fertility is at or below the level needed, over time, to replace the existing population. Yet the global total is not about to fall. The Population Reference Bureau projects an increase from 8.2 billion people in 2026 to 9.6 billion in 2050. This apparent contradiction is largely explained by population momentum: countries with relatively young populations can continue growing for decades because many people are entering or are already in their childbearing years, even when each woman has fewer children on average.

Aging will also proceed at very different speeds. Japan is identified by the Census Bureau as the world’s oldest country in 2025. By 2060, South Korea is projected to have the highest proportion of older adults, with people aged 65 and above making up about 41% of its population. KBS World describes South Korea’s transition as especially rapid, with the older share rising from roughly one-fifth of the population to that level.

The geography of aging will not simply mirror today’s wealthiest regions. By 2060, Africa is expected to contain more older people in absolute numbers than Europe, even though its population will remain younger on average. This reflects Africa’s much larger and growing population, as well as improvements in survival. A high number of older people does not necessarily mean that a country has the same age structure or resources as a country where older adults form a very large percentage of the population.

Longer lives are an important achievement, reflecting improvements in health, living conditions and medical care. But the Census Bureau cautions that additional years of life do not automatically equal additional years in good health. Governments and communities may therefore face increasing demand for chronic-disease treatment, rehabilitation, long-term care and support for people living with disabilities.

The demographic change will affect public finances and everyday family life as well. Pension systems may need to support more beneficiaries for longer periods, while employers and governments may need to make work more accessible to older adults. In many countries, families still provide much of the care for aging relatives, but smaller family sizes can mean fewer relatives are available to share that responsibility.

Planning will depend on reliable population information. The Population Reference Bureau warns that weaker censuses, civil-registration systems and surveys could make it harder to track changing age structures and direct services where they are needed. The projections are also not predictions carved in stone: fertility, migration, mortality and public policy can all alter the pace of change.

The central pattern, however, is clear. The world is still growing, but its population is becoming older. Countries that prepare for longer lives, smaller families and more varied working ages will be better placed to turn this demographic transition into a source of experience and participation rather than a strain on care and public resources.